Going out on a limb here

I'm no longer thinking in terms of an Obama win, but now I'm questioning how big. At the beginning of the day I anticipated a baseline of 311 electoral votes.  I figure California, Washington, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Nevada and Hawaii should all end up Obama. I'm willing to consider Virginia and North Carolina, Missouri as tossups that we may and may not win. The rest should be safe McCain.

Adding what I I've mentioned above, I see Obama getting to 336 and perhaps higher. How much longer I blog tonight is in question.  I'm likely to fold after California or Florida - whichever is called first. Then, tomorrow I'll do a wrap up with some thoughts.

Technorati Tags: presidential election returns 2008,Obama,McCain

Just a thought

California has 55 electoral votes and with Obama at 200 votes now, it's hard to see California not going Democratic. That would leave 15 electoral votes needed. Only 15 votes and there are 7 in Iowa where he has been up in the polls, 7 in Oregon and 11 in Washington that are also likely to go Democratic.  So Florida, Indiana, Virginia and everything else is just gravy if he wins it, or insignificant of not.

It's not over, but very likely over.

Technorati Tags: presidential election 2008

OBAMA CARVES OUT A NEW BLUE STATE IN OHIO

The electoral vote stands at 175 to 76 at present. As it stands now, McCain is still able to find a way to victory but there are states that are important to him that Obama is competitive in that McCain would need. Several in fact. Florida is looking very good for Obama. Even heavy GOP areas are under performing. Indiana and even Virginia remain too close to call. I have to say Indiana looks very good.  But as I say that, Obama with 20 votes and last election Red has flipped to Obama.

This now puts Obama at 195 - McCain would now need to find 20 votes somewhere he did not anticipate.  The networks are not calling it, but I have to believe Florida and Indiana simply look unlikely for McCain with areas still remaining to report.

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Where will the Flip Come?

Florida? Ohio? Indiana? I think Indiana will go Obama when the NW Urban area comes in. It should break heavy Democratic and so hopefully we'll know something soon.

Tennessee has been called for McCain. No Surprise there. Polls are closing in more states. Kansas has been called for McCain. Minnessota, Wisconson, Michigan to Obama

Wyoming and North Dakota (a tossup state) have gone to McCain.

Technorati Tags: Election Night 2008

Patiently Anticipating Indiana

Still looking for a call in Indiana as this could be a flip.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Dole lost her Senate seat as it goes Democratic.

Alabama - 9 votes to McCain as is Georgia with 15 votes.  Come on Indiana.

Technorati Tags: Presidential election 2008,Obama,McCain

MSNBC Calls Pennsylvania for Obama

McCain's strategy has now cracked as Obama has been called for Obama. They spent so much time there and this is a blow to the candidates efforts. This is however a defensive win for Obama. It is after all a Blue state so it isn't a steal.

Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Connecticut, D.C., Pennsylvania now all in Obama's Column.

Democrats pick up a seat Senate seat in New Hampshire.

McCain winner in Oklahoma, South Carolina, Kentucky.

Technorati Tags: presidnetial election 2008,Obama,McCain

Something Should Be Breaking Soon

Less then 30 minutes till more polls closing.  Still looking for a sign, a tangible sign other then Obama  playing well in several Red states. Looking for that first instance of one candidate or the other punching through and turning a state. Until this happens, we don't know enough to anticipate the outcome.

My own state (Missouri) closes at the top of the hour but it will likely be close and therefore late before the results are known. MSNBC calling South Carolina for McCain but totally expectable.

Technorati Tags: presidential election 2008,Obama,McCain