Followers

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

The Day After Election

OBVIC

I was not surprised at the outcome of the general election last night though I will admit that I was a non-believer just a few short months ago. I was then convinced that Hillary Clinton was the stronger candidate. In the weeks that followed the Democratic National Convention brought me to the point of believing.  I have been immersed in Democratic Party politics for many years and what I witnessed down the stretch was perhaps the closest think I've seen to a perfect election campaign.  I am well aware that there were a number of things that led to a favorable climate for Democrats, but that said, there was no way this election would just fall into our laps.

After eight years of a president that has taken this country to a number of new lows and brought himself to a status of insignificance, America is not willing to settle something less than they believe they deserve. Ready for change, Barack Obama became the change that a majority of Americans could believe in.

The laundry list of problems facing the new president is daunting. It's almost enough to thank maybe the Democrats would be better letting the GOP claw itself out of the hole it dug for us. But more of the same is what you get when you keep trying things the same way. Democrats would be letting the country down if the cowered from the tasks ahead.

There are a number of things that went through my mind last night as Obama was giving his victory speech at Grant Park in Chicago.  There was the irony of the history of Grant Park and the demonstrators and police clashing there in 1968 during the Democratic National Convention. I also thought about the fact that in spite of several who have tried, America has never elected a Vietnam War Veteran President and this is likely the last one who will be of the age to try.

Last night was transformative in so many ways and the election of the first African American to the nations highest office is but one of those ways. It is clear to me that the polls clearly show broad support across various demographic groups. Gender, race, religion, age... clearly the fifty state strategy showed a log of confidence in the candidates message. In fact for all of the McCain charges about Obama on taxes, his support among those earning over $200,000  a year was substantial.

America is ready to turn not just a page in it's history but move on to a whole new story. Obama and the nation face multiple serious issues immediately. Obama is not a magician.  Before the election he made it clear that economic turmoil  we face will temper some of what we can undertake immediately. What I believe will benefit our country is a more inclusive attitude in the oval office. Do you recall Bush pledging to bring this nation together after the 2000 election was over? Well, I suppose he has in one respect.  It is out of the catastrophic failures in foreign policy, economic policy and loss of American standing around the world that he has brought us together.

Americans have rejected the many failed policies of the past eight years. They have expressed the view that hope is desirable to fear.  That they will not easily buy into wild charges of campaign-bait rhetoric.

After the past two elections with razor thin margins and periods of uncertainty, it was refreshing to learn the outcome by 10:00 p.m. central time. The election gods smiled upon us.

Technorati Tags:

 

 

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

MSNBC HAS CALLED THE ELECTION FOR OBAMA

California, Washington, Oregon Have gone to Oboma and the election has been called already. There will be more added to this as the night goes on, but this is a resounding result and very unlike the long drug out 2 previous presidential elections.

I'll wrap up with more thoughts tomorrow.

Technorati Tags:

Going out on a limb here

I'm no longer thinking in terms of an Obama win, but now I'm questioning how big. At the beginning of the day I anticipated a baseline of 311 electoral votes.  I figure California, Washington, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Nevada and Hawaii should all end up Obama. I'm willing to consider Virginia and North Carolina, Missouri as tossups that we may and may not win. The rest should be safe McCain.

Adding what I I've mentioned above, I see Obama getting to 336 and perhaps higher. How much longer I blog tonight is in question.  I'm likely to fold after California or Florida - whichever is called first. Then, tomorrow I'll do a wrap up with some thoughts.

Just a thought

California has 55 electoral votes and with Obama at 200 votes now, it's hard to see California not going Democratic. That would leave 15 electoral votes needed. Only 15 votes and there are 7 in Iowa where he has been up in the polls, 7 in Oregon and 11 in Washington that are also likely to go Democratic.  So Florida, Indiana, Virginia and everything else is just gravy if he wins it, or insignificant of not.

It's not over, but very likely over.

OBAMA CARVES OUT A NEW BLUE STATE IN OHIO

The electoral vote stands at 175 to 76 at present. As it stands now, McCain is still able to find a way to victory but there are states that are important to him that Obama is competitive in that McCain would need. Several in fact. Florida is looking very good for Obama. Even heavy GOP areas are under performing. Indiana and even Virginia remain too close to call. I have to say Indiana looks very good.  But as I say that, Obama with 20 votes and last election Red has flipped to Obama.

This now puts Obama at 195 - McCain would now need to find 20 votes somewhere he did not anticipate.  The networks are not calling it, but I have to believe Florida and Indiana simply look unlikely for McCain with areas still remaining to report.

Where will the Flip Come?

Florida? Ohio? Indiana? I think Indiana will go Obama when the NW Urban area comes in. It should break heavy Democratic and so hopefully we'll know something soon.

Tennessee has been called for McCain. No Surprise there. Polls are closing in more states. Kansas has been called for McCain. Minnessota, Wisconson, Michigan to Obama

Wyoming and North Dakota (a tossup state) have gone to McCain.

Technorati Tags:

Patiently Anticipating Indiana

Still looking for a call in Indiana as this could be a flip.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Dole lost her Senate seat as it goes Democratic.

Alabama - 9 votes to McCain as is Georgia with 15 votes.  Come on Indiana.