Remembering Anne Sexton belatedly

"The beautiful feeling after writing a poem is on the whole better even then after sex, and that's saying a lot"

               ~Anne Sexton

Yesterday was Anne Sexton's birthday - I've been sick and not been on my computer for two days so this is a belated remembrance. You cannot talk about those who have left their mark on American Poetry without mentioning her name. 

Confession Tuesday - Post Election Edition

Dear Reader:  I realize it's not Tuesday and have seen some people with their head in a fog this morning, I beg your dispensation at being late. Actually it's been two weeks and a day since my last confession.

I confess that I missed confession here two weeks ago because I was not in an especially confessional mood. We had just put down one of our cats of some 14 years and it was a sudden and totally unexpected event. I've never been good in dealing with the loss of a pet.

Last night I confess was all about the election. Once I was home I was pretty much zoned into returns. You have to understand my political history to understand the nature and degree to which elections are an obsession to me. During the 14 years that I served on the Democratic Committee including the time I was Chairman of the County Democratic Party I considered myself the consummate vote counter.  I elections I was excellent at projecting were needed votes were and how to turn them out.

My blog post from early yesterday indicated my last best assessment on the potential outcome of the presidential election based upon a number of varying polls, my recollection of 2008 returns and what I anticipated the turnouts would be like. Don't get me wrong I'm no Nate Silver. I'm not boy wonder, but I am better then average with such projections.

The results of my election  picks were not bad. I was under the impression that Florida would be won by Romney even as I felt the numbers there were tightening. And while I believed we would win Virginia, I started doubting myself last night. There was no need to doubt in the end.  Ohio I never really questioned and even as I watched it tighter at one point - once I was able to the the county by county returns and realized most of the Republican counties were 100%  reporting or mid to high 80's and the Cuyohoga County (Cleveland) was only reporting 30% with Obama polling 70% to 29% Romney, I figured the slow counting reflected high turnout and recalling that Obama build up a roughly 200,000 vote margin there 4 years ago, I knew in the end the lead would hold.

So yes I was feeling a little nerdy last night. I confess this but with the caveat that this is about as nerdy as I ever get.

I also confess it was fascinating how many people were overly anxious in the early going. In reality I expected that the word would not come as quickly as it did. The worst "general" election nights I have suffered through are of course 2000 but also 1968 (my very first and while I was not old enough to vote in this election I spent a sizable amount of time each evening and on weekends working in the campaign.)

But seriously, there were several people on Facebook that I felt were about to lose it by the time of 9PM poll closings. I'm not trying to make fun of anyone that messaged me during this time (there were several) but I only hope that my responses served as a calming voice of reason. It's easy to be a little calmer if you see early states going to the opponent that you never believed or counted on having in your path to victory. Meanwhile, I'm sure a more casual viewer gets a little shaky to see the other side have six or seven states called for them and your candidate just one.

I confess that more important then calling any state right is the victory.  I don't always have happy predictions. But it's twice as nice to be right and have your candidate win.

My Final Electoral Vote Predictions for 2012

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

Early  States to watch -

• Virginia - Obama turned this state blue last time and is hopeful of doing so a again but this one could be very close.
• New Hampshire - only 4 electoral votes  this state is more important to Romney then Obama - Could be close but I expect it to be Democratic in the end. 
• Florida winning this state is likely more critical for Romney then Obama An Obama win here would be very bad news for Romney. Obama can likely lose this one and still have more options to to get to 270. 
• Pennsylvania - Romney has tried to make this in play but it's probably more wishful thinking then anything.
• Iowa - Romney was hopeful of a win here and god the Des Moines Register endorsement still the polls look good for Obama. 
• South Carolina should go to Romney. A loss here spells trouble for Romney. 
• Ohio - Everyone says this is the state to watch, there could be reminders of Florida 2000 when it comes to counting votes here for several reasons I won't go into right now. If Romney wins Ohio then probably  there is an upset in the making. The should be an Obama win when all the dist settles and is counted. Whenever that may be. 

Others of interest -

• Wisconsin with 10 votes will likely go for Obama. Ryan is not likely to help  his running mate that much in his own state. Republicans thought they has a chance here early on, but the GOP awoke a sleeping giant when it took on labor here. 
• Michigan - maybe close but I expect Obama to win.
• Minnesota - I don't know why I'm talking about this state except for Romney's wishful thinking. 
• Colorado - it's all about the Latino vote. Will be a disappointing someone because both sides think they can win this one. My bet is on the side of Obama.
• Nevada - an active labor  vote should mean a win for Obama.  

There you have it -  my predictions.  I believe I only missed one state 4 years ago.  If you click on the link at the beginning you can see my electoral predictions plotted out on a map in Blue and Red.  Settle in and watch the returns with me tonight. 

Persistence and the writer

As long as we are persistence in our pursuit of our deepest destiny, we will continue to grow. We cannot choose the day or time when we will fully bloom. It happens in its own time. - Denis Waitley

Random words for the week

A few words that have hung with me throughout the week. Some I'd like to shake...

• provisional
• bi-partisan
• hour
• smell
• forever
• power
• deadlock
• diet
• service
• litter
• dinner
• sludge
• climate
• conversion
• management

Living Hope

"The world would rather see hope then just hear its song. And that's why statesmen have to smile.Their pearly whites mean they're still full of cheer.The game's complex, the goal's far out of reach, the outcome's still unclear - once in a while,we need a friendly, gleaming set to teeth."                            

         -Wislawa Szymboraska

I think a lot of people are looking for the real manifestation of hope right now and not just the music.  I found these words from the polish poet Wislawa Szymboraska strikingly appropriate for the week we've been through.  Sometimes it is hard to see beyond the curvature of the earth up ahead and we are traveling so fast and furious and something like hurricane Sandy comes along and we apply the breaks but it's too late.  Now everyone tries to put everything back together and the losses are so large. 

Salvaging Books From Water Damage

Did you have books that took a beating from Sandy?   Here's some expert advice about how you might salvage some of them. FIRST SAID FOR WATER DAMAGED BOOKS