Confession Tuesday - Pants on Fire Edition

Dear Reader:

It's been a long assed time since my last confession. All the way back to September 20th. Thanksgiving has come and gone since then. Election day has come and gone but the hangover remains. I've toiled away at writing. Some good and some not so good. But here I am today for the pants on fire edition of  confession Tuesday. Shall we begin?

I've tried to true to my writing and this past week I was able to pull together  two new poems and several other near poems. That is, they are close to being able to stand on their own words. I confess that I had been in a writing funk but  I am declaring it past!

Being busy with writing is good. Being busy with most anything is good. The repercussions of the Presidential election reverberate in my head and my stomach if I am not busy. Even then, I confess that I am not  able to completely shake the thought from my achy bones.

One of the sad things about this election (and there are so many) is that truth or fact was a casualty of the election. I've been involved in enough political campaigns over the years to know that sometimes truth gets stretched and bent a bit by some of the candidates. I confess in all the years of campaigns that I have been alive to observe and /or participate in, none have failed so miserably in the pursuit of truth.

This is no small thing that has occurred.  Concerted efforts to manufacture fake news was rampant. Lies were made by the Trump campaign and denied within fractions of an hour in spite of the existence of audio and or video feed that substantiated it. People were believing things that were so phony and outlandish and yet they ate this stuff up and looked for more.

One of the dictionaries that  each year crowns a new word as significant to the passing year selected "post-truth" as the word for this year. Who could argue against this selection?

I could go on and on about all the concerns I have about a Trump Presidency (and there are many) but the only thing I'm saying here is that anything closely resembling fact was brutally assaulted.  If truth is not dead after this election it has fallen and can't get up. Perhaps it can be placed on life support, but I must confess that I do not believe the prognosis for it's future are looking good at all.

There are two parties to this problem. One of course was the liar. But lies can be challenged. They can be scrutinized by fact checks. I don't know if a large portion of the electorate is lazy or if they are plain ignorant. Some, but not all of this crap was being slung around by white supremacist groups. What I don't know is how after such a blatant and high profile campaign of lies and fake news, how do you restore the rule of factuality to our political process? The cow is out of the barn, how do you return her to her former place?

I confess that as I leave you this evening, I sign off disturbed, concerned, and dismayed.  I have no answers.

All best to everyone!

Confession Tuesday - Post Election Edition

Dear Reader:  I realize it's not Tuesday and have seen some people with their head in a fog this morning, I beg your dispensation at being late. Actually it's been two weeks and a day since my last confession.

I confess that I missed confession here two weeks ago because I was not in an especially confessional mood. We had just put down one of our cats of some 14 years and it was a sudden and totally unexpected event. I've never been good in dealing with the loss of a pet.

Last night I confess was all about the election. Once I was home I was pretty much zoned into returns. You have to understand my political history to understand the nature and degree to which elections are an obsession to me. During the 14 years that I served on the Democratic Committee including the time I was Chairman of the County Democratic Party I considered myself the consummate vote counter.  I elections I was excellent at projecting were needed votes were and how to turn them out.

My blog post from early yesterday indicated my last best assessment on the potential outcome of the presidential election based upon a number of varying polls, my recollection of 2008 returns and what I anticipated the turnouts would be like. Don't get me wrong I'm no Nate Silver. I'm not boy wonder, but I am better then average with such projections.

The results of my election  picks were not bad. I was under the impression that Florida would be won by Romney even as I felt the numbers there were tightening. And while I believed we would win Virginia, I started doubting myself last night. There was no need to doubt in the end.  Ohio I never really questioned and even as I watched it tighter at one point - once I was able to the the county by county returns and realized most of the Republican counties were 100%  reporting or mid to high 80's and the Cuyohoga County (Cleveland) was only reporting 30% with Obama polling 70% to 29% Romney, I figured the slow counting reflected high turnout and recalling that Obama build up a roughly 200,000 vote margin there 4 years ago, I knew in the end the lead would hold.

So yes I was feeling a little nerdy last night. I confess this but with the caveat that this is about as nerdy as I ever get.

I also confess it was fascinating how many people were overly anxious in the early going. In reality I expected that the word would not come as quickly as it did. The worst "general" election nights I have suffered through are of course 2000 but also 1968 (my very first and while I was not old enough to vote in this election I spent a sizable amount of time each evening and on weekends working in the campaign.)

But seriously, there were several people on Facebook that I felt were about to lose it by the time of 9PM poll closings. I'm not trying to make fun of anyone that messaged me during this time (there were several) but I only hope that my responses served as a calming voice of reason. It's easy to be a little calmer if you see early states going to the opponent that you never believed or counted on having in your path to victory. Meanwhile, I'm sure a more casual viewer gets a little shaky to see the other side have six or seven states called for them and your candidate just one.

I confess that more important then calling any state right is the victory.  I don't always have happy predictions. But it's twice as nice to be right and have your candidate win.

My Final Electoral Vote Predictions for 2012

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

Early  States to watch -

• Virginia - Obama turned this state blue last time and is hopeful of doing so a again but this one could be very close.
• New Hampshire - only 4 electoral votes  this state is more important to Romney then Obama - Could be close but I expect it to be Democratic in the end. 
• Florida winning this state is likely more critical for Romney then Obama An Obama win here would be very bad news for Romney. Obama can likely lose this one and still have more options to to get to 270. 
• Pennsylvania - Romney has tried to make this in play but it's probably more wishful thinking then anything.
• Iowa - Romney was hopeful of a win here and god the Des Moines Register endorsement still the polls look good for Obama. 
• South Carolina should go to Romney. A loss here spells trouble for Romney. 
• Ohio - Everyone says this is the state to watch, there could be reminders of Florida 2000 when it comes to counting votes here for several reasons I won't go into right now. If Romney wins Ohio then probably  there is an upset in the making. The should be an Obama win when all the dist settles and is counted. Whenever that may be. 

Others of interest -

• Wisconsin with 10 votes will likely go for Obama. Ryan is not likely to help  his running mate that much in his own state. Republicans thought they has a chance here early on, but the GOP awoke a sleeping giant when it took on labor here. 
• Michigan - maybe close but I expect Obama to win.
• Minnesota - I don't know why I'm talking about this state except for Romney's wishful thinking. 
• Colorado - it's all about the Latino vote. Will be a disappointing someone because both sides think they can win this one. My bet is on the side of Obama.
• Nevada - an active labor  vote should mean a win for Obama.  

There you have it -  my predictions.  I believe I only missed one state 4 years ago.  If you click on the link at the beginning you can see my electoral predictions plotted out on a map in Blue and Red.  Settle in and watch the returns with me tonight. 

The Irony in GOP Election Hypocrisy

For some time the Republican party has systematically sought to enact stringent Voter ID requirements state by state. They have argued this is to stem voter fraud in spite of the fact that independent studies around the nation have uncovered no evidence that this has in fact been a problem.  These changes have in fact been sanctioned by the Republican party for one purpose only: to suppress the votes of voters such as the elderly, minorities and students, all of whom traditionally have been Democratic constituencies.

Okay, if voter fraud were a real concern for Republicans you would think they would have adopted more stringent safeguards for next week's Iowa Presidential Caucuses, but not so. Since this has never been about voter fraud  the GOP will again not bother to make Iowa Republicans show such ID before voting in their caucuses.

Both the Republican and Democratic Parties control their own nomination process rules and this is not left to the whims of legislative bodies so in Iowa this hypocrisy is directly within the Republican Party control. Seem strange to you?

Oh, and before you say oh, such requirement isn't really a deterrent to anyone casting votes, check here and here and here.  These are real people, real voters.

OMG this is too Funny!

Credit to: First Door on the Left

Palin's Campaign Continues Disturbing Aspects

The polls have widened and the days till the election are fleeting. This morning I noticed further indication in the desperation of the McCain campaign as they have seen Sarah Palin out to deliver messages of unsubstantiated fear. Fear is what people often turn to when things are not going well in a campaign. Fear and innuendo becomes the hallmark of political desperation. 

According to Reuters news service, Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin Palin told of supporters at a rally in Carson, California that, "There is a time when it's necessary to take the gloves off and that time is right now." Pain went on to a accuse Obama of "palling around with terrorists." The remarks were referencing a New York Times story referencing Bill Ayers, a former Vietnam War-era militant that served on a Charity Board along with Obama.  The story went on to conclude that Ayers, now a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago and Obama were not close.

On the heels of the Katie Couric interview in which Palin was asked what she relied on to informs her she relayed that she read magazines and newspapers. When Couric inquired what publications, Palin offered not a single name.  At the Carson rally she noted, "There has been a lot of interest in what I read, and what I read lately well, was reading my copy of today’s New York Times... OK, now I get to bring this up not to pick a fight, but it was there in the New York Times, so we're gonna talk about it."

It would appear that either Palin is intentionally misrepresenting the story, or she is skimming articles and has a comprehension issue. If it is the latter, I'm not attempting to suggest that Palin is a moron or anything, as I would expect her schedule these days is hectic and required a good deal of multi tasking. So if it the that latter, than she is perhaps not quite up to the riggers of the job. If in fact it is not the latter, it must be considered misrepresentation of this story to interject fear into the campaign in the final weeks. Saying there is a Friendship between Obama and Terrorists gets big headlines. The McCain campaign is wrong to suggest it.  Be it lies or lack of competence. As evidenced by the stakes in this election this country can ill afford a President and Vice President of either stature.

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