Tuesday, November 06, 2012

My Final Electoral Vote Predictions for 2012

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

Early  States to watch -

  • Virginia - Obama turned this state blue last time and is hopeful of doing so a again but this one could be very close.
  • New Hampshire - only 4 electoral votes  this state is more important to Romney then Obama - Could be close but I expect it to be Democratic in the end. 
  • Florida winning this state is likely more critical for Romney then Obama An Obama win here would be very bad news for Romney. Obama can likely lose this one and still have more options to to get to 270. 
  • Pennsylvania - Romney has tried to make this in play but it's probably more wishful thinking then anything.
  • Iowa - Romney was hopeful of a win here and god the Des Moines Register endorsement still the polls look good for Obama. 
  • South Carolina should go to Romney. A loss here spells trouble for Romney. 
  • Ohio - Everyone says this is the state to watch, there could be reminders of Florida 2000 when it comes to counting votes here for several reasons I won't go into right now. If Romney wins Ohio then probably  there is an upset in the making. The should be an Obama win when all the dist settles and is counted. Whenever that may be. 
Others of interest -
  • Wisconsin with 10 votes will likely go for Obama. Ryan is not likely to help  his running mate that much in his own state. Republicans thought they has a chance here early on, but the GOP awoke a sleeping giant when it took on labor here. 
  • Michigan - maybe close but I expect Obama to win.
  • Minnesota - I don't know why I'm talking about this state except for Romney's wishful thinking. 
  • Colorado - it's all about the Latino vote. Will be a disappointing someone because both sides think they can win this one. My bet is on the side of Obama.
  • Nevada - an active labor  vote should mean a win for Obama.  
There you have it -  my predictions.  I believe I only missed one state 4 years ago.  If you click on the link at the beginning you can see my electoral predictions plotted out on a map in Blue and Red.  Settle in and watch the returns with me tonight. 
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